导读：在美国，如果你想对当下的经济情况有一个较好的了解，你可以阅读国民生产总值（GDP）报告，或是关注一下每个月的失业率。不过，你也可以看看近期男士内衣或是香槟的销量。经济学家提出了一个强有力的论点，即我们购买的东西决定了我们是谁。Photo by Karsten Wine

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在美国，如果你想对当下的经济情况有一个较好的了解，你可以阅读国民生产总值（GDP）报告，或是关注一下每个月的失业率。不过，你也可以看看近期男士内衣或是香槟的销量。

经济学家提出了一个强有力的论点，即我们购买的东西决定了我们是谁。

Photo by Karsten Winegeart on Unsplash

尽管这个说法听起来很奇怪，但通过观察我们扔进购物车的物品，确实能准确预测未来的经济状况（来源：大卫蒂森）。我们能将这些物品视作经济指标。

不是所有的指标都有同样的价值。一些会很靠谱，另一些就不怎么样，还有一些，衡量的并不是经济情况。

我们列出了10个虽然很奇怪但又非常值得关注的指标，那我们就先从怪到广为人知的口红股市关系开始介绍吧。

作者：达夫鲁斯（Dave Roos）

10: Lipstick vs. Nail Polish唇膏VS指甲油

Photo by Faisal Waheed on Unsplash

The supposedly means that when lipstick sales increase, the economy is worsening but it has not proved to be always true.

“口红指数”（ lipstick index）的意思是，口红销量上升时，经济就开始恶化，但事实并不尽然。

When the economy tanked during the 2001 recession, cosmetic company Estée Lauder saw a significant boom in lipstick sales. Its former chairman, Leonard Lauder, dubbed it the "lipstick index," explaining that women seek out cheap "luxuries" when money is tight [source: Wolverson].

2001年美国经济衰退期间，化妆品公司雅诗兰黛的口红销量反而迎来了激增。其前总裁奥纳多·兰黛将其称之为“口红指数”，称女性在经济吃紧的情况下会选择购买较为廉价的“奢侈品”。

Turns out that Lauder was half right. 

然而，事实证明，兰黛的说法只对了一半。

Women do splurge on cheaper treats when the economy is weak, but fashion trends are another strong influence.

女性在经济状况不佳时确实会更倾向于买便宜些的东西，但他忽略了时尚趋势也会对她们的消费倾向产生很大的影响。

During the Great Recession, for example, lipstick sales fell with the rest of the economy in 2008, but nail polish sales went through the roof, up 65 percent from 2008 to 2011 [sources: Davidson, Wolverson].

比如在2008年经济萧条时期，口红的销量同经济情况一同下滑，而指甲油的销量却登顶，从2008年至2011年上升了65%。（来源：大卫蒂森，沃尔弗森）

Photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash

The longer the recession, though, the weaker the relationship between down markets and "pick-me-up" sales. 

经济萧条的时间越长，低迷的市场和销量激增的个例之间的关系反而越弱。

As the economy continued to limp along in 2013, U.S. perfume and nail product sales flattened and even declined as Americans cut back further on discretionary spending [source: Ng].

2013年经济持续停滞不前，美国的香水和指甲油销量平平，甚至当美国人减少不必要指出后还出现了下降。（来源：Ng）

9: Coke Is It就是可口可乐（广告语）

Photo by Laura Chouette on Unsplash

Coke sales in Africa measure political stability.

在非洲，可乐销量能够衡量经济稳定性。

Coca-Cola is the biggest private employer in Africa and its sugary soft drinks are cheap and widely available even in the humblest rural store. 

可口可乐公司时是非洲最大的私营企业，其含糖软饮料价格低廉，甚至在最落后的农村小卖部都能买到。

Coke is so popular in Africa — more than 36 billion bottles are sold each year — that the company has identified a direct relation between Coke sales and political stability in African nations [source: The Economist].

在非洲，可乐很受欢迎——每年售出360多亿瓶——因此可口可乐公司指出可乐销量和非洲的政治稳定性之间有着直接联系。（来源：经济学人）

When Kenya erupted in post-election violence in 2008, Coke sales slumped then bounced back. As the country stabilized, more delivery of the drink in rural villages and urban slums was possible. 

2008年，肯尼亚爆发选后暴力，可口可乐的销量下跌后又回弹。当国家安定下来之后，更多的饮料能够派送到乡镇以及城市的贫民窟中。

Photo by Oyemike Princewill on Unsplash

The most dramatic indicators of instability are the countries that can't even get their act together to operate a bottling plant, like Somalia and Eritrea, whose supply lines were plundered by pirates and warlords [source: The Economist].

当时一些供应链受海盗和军阀侵害的国家，如索马里和厄立特里亚等，甚至不能合力去经营一家可乐装瓶厂，这是最夸张的动乱指标。

The Coke index doesn't function as well in North America and Western Europe, where changing tastes and higher prices are more likely to affect soft drink sale.

然而，可乐指数在北美和西欧就没那么有用了，这两个地区的口味变化多端，物价也高，软饮料的销量更加容易受到影响。

8: Burgernomics汉堡经济

Photo by sk on Unsplash

A worker takes an order from a customer in China's first McDonald's restaurant, back in 1992. According to the 'Big Mac Index,' global currency values can be measured by looking at the price of a Big Mac in various countries.

1992年，一位员工正在中国的第一家麦当劳店为一位顾客点单。根据‘巨无霸指数’，我们能够通过观察不同国家的巨无霸汉堡价格来衡量全球货币价值。

Back in 1986, writers for The Economist came up with a tasty way of measuring purchasing power parity or PPP by comparing the price of a McDonald's Big Mac across different countries. 

1986年，《经济学人》的作者们突发奇想，通过对比不同国家巨无霸汉堡的售价来衡量购买力平价（PPP），一种很美味的的衡量方式。

购买力平价：

两个国家货币之间的汇率，使得在两个国家中，用一种货币购买同样数量的商品所需的成本相同，不包括关税和运输成本。

• Purchasing power parity is used to compare the economic productivity and standards of living between countries.

• 购买力平价被用来比较不同国家之间的经济生产力和生活水平。

The exercise turned out to be a handy — if not entirely accurate — way of predicting which global currencies were undervalued or overvalued compared to the U.S. dollar [source: The Economist].

如果不要求非常精确，那么这种方式在预测全球货币较美元而言升值还是贬值方面还是很方便的。

Here's how the theory works. 

接下来让我们看看这一理论到底是如何发挥作用的吧。

In 2011, the price of a Big Mac in China was U.S. $2.27 versus $4.07 stateside. According to the Big Mac Index, that meant that the Chinese yuan was 44 percent undervalued compared to the U.S. dollar. 

2011年，中国的巨无霸汉堡售价为2.27美元，而美国本土售价为4.07美元。根据巨无霸指数，在价值方面，中国的人民币要比美金低44%。

In Brazil, on the other hand, a Big Mac was 51 percent more expensive than in America (at $6.16), making the real wildly overvalued as a global currency [source: The Economist].

另一方面，在巴西，一个巨无霸汉堡要比美国本土贵51%，每个售价为6.16美元，以上案例中，巨无霸的地位一跃而升，成为全球货币。

Over time, the theory goes, exchange rates should drift toward equality or PPP. That's critical information for folks who trade on the FOREX or foreign exchange market. 

这一理论认为：随着时间的推移，汇率应该趋于平衡或购买力平价。对于那些在外汇市场有业务的人来说，只是一条关键的信息。

The Economist is quick to note, however, that Big Mac prices are affected by other factors, most notably wages and cost of living standards, which vary widely in developing countries.

然而《经济学人》很快就指出巨无霸指数会受到其他因素影响，其中最显著的就是工资和生活成本，这两个因素在发展中国家的变化巨大。

7: Hemlines裙边效应

Photo by Tamara Bellis on Unsplash

Some economic indicators are so much fun, it hardly matters if they're actually true. Exhibit A is the "hemline theory" promoted by economist George Taylor back in the Roaring '20s. 

一些经济指标非常有趣，但如果它们本身就是错的，那它再有趣也没用。其中一个例子就是于咆哮的20年代由经济学家乔治泰勒提出的“裙边效应”。

The Wharton School of Business professor couldn't help but notice the shockingly short dresses worn by flappers during the flush years before the stock market crash of 1929. 

这位沃顿商学院的教授不禁注意到：在1929年股市受到冲击之前，年轻女孩儿们都穿着令人震撼的短裙，这几年经济状况比较好。

According to Taylor's theory, women raised their skirts in good times to show off their expensive silk stockings. When they couldn't afford new stockings, the hemlines fell down [source: Carney].

泰勒在该理论中指出，女性会在经济状况好的时候提起她们的裙摆来展示自己昂贵的丝袜。而当她们买不起新丝袜时，裙边自然就放下来了。（来源：加内）

Photo by Lensabl on Unsplash

Does that mean that a trend toward shorter or longer skirts can accurately predict movements in the stock market? Hardly. 

这是不是就意味着看流行长裙摆还是短裙摆就能精确预测出股市的动向呢？答案是：很难。

A team of economic researchers from the Netherlands compared hemline lengths with economic indicators from 1921 to 2009 and found that skirt lengths actually trailed the market by three to four years. In other words, skirts rose three years after an economic turnaround [source: Carney].

一群荷兰的经济研究员对比了1921年至2009年的裙摆长度和经济指标，他们发现裙摆长度实际上是根据三到四年的市场行情而裁定的。换句话说，经济回暖三年后，裙摆就会变短。（来源：加内）

Clothing buyers for major retailers point out fashion trends work independently of the economy, although women are more likely to splurge on a name-brand skirt — long or short — when economic confidence is high, and opt for the discount version when money is tight [source: Sincere].

虽然女士在经济状况良好的时候更加倾向于去买名牌裙子，根本不在意它或长或短，而当她们财务吃紧，就会倾向于买打折款，但几个主要服装零售商的客户还是指出时尚趋势和经济之间并无什么关联。（来源：Sincere）

6: Follow the Wire电子汇款

Photo by Alistair MacRobert on Unsplash

Musician Wyclef Jean (l) passes out $50 Western Union gift cards to fans at an event in Los Angeles. Western Union earnings help to measure migration trends.

音乐人韦克莱夫·让（Wyclef Jean）在洛杉矶的一场活动中，给自己的粉丝送了价值50美元的西联汇款礼品卡。西联汇款的收入能够用于衡量移民趋势。

For millions of migrant workers worldwide, Western Union is the fastest, simplest and most reliable way to send money to family and friends back home. 

对于全世界数以百万计的移民工人而言，采用西联汇款是家中向亲朋好友汇款最快速、便捷且安全的方式。

The company, which launched the telegram industry in 1851, is so popular with migrant workers that Western Union's earnings reports are one of the most accurate reflections of global migration trends.

西联汇款成立于1851年，起初经营电报产业，在移民工人广受好评。因此该机构的收入报告是反应全球移民动向最准确的指标之一。

Photo by Tech Daily on Unsplash

Back in 2003, for example, Western Union made more than half of its earnings from migrant workers in the U.S. sending money home to countries like Mexico and El Salvador. 

比如，2003年，西联汇款超一半的收入都是来自于美国的移民工人，他们通过该公司向自己远在他国的亲人汇款，比如墨西哥，萨尔瓦多共和国等。

By 2013, only 30 percent of Western Union's revenue originated in the U.S. Instead, the company saw a significant increase in money transfers from emerging economies like Brazil, Chile and Malaysia [source: Jordan]. 

截至2013年，西联汇款的收入仅有30%是源自美国。取而代之的是该公司在巴西、智利、马来西亚等新兴经济体中资金转移明显上升。（来源：乔丹）

Since many migrant workers lack legal documentation, Western Union records are the next best thing to census data for determining migration trends worldwide.

由于很多移民工人缺少相关法律文件，西联汇款的记录是仅次于人口普查数据，在确定全世界移民趋势方面第二可靠的指标。

5: Men's Underwear男士内衣

Photo by Andreea Popa on Unsplash

Since men’s underwear represents the ultimate non-luxury item, Alan Greenspan theorized that any slight dip in sales signaled a serious drop in discretionary income.

由于男士内衣是非奢侈品的典型代表，艾伦·格林斯潘（, Alan Greenspan ）提出了这样一个理论：男士内衣销售额中有任何轻微的下降，都代表可支配收入的严重下滑。

这个观点来自前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘，他因其对美国经济的敏锐洞察力而被称为"先知"。

据媒体报道，格林斯潘有一些他自己钟爱的经济指标，包括干洗行业的趋势（他认为这是富裕时期的奢侈品）和男士内衣销售，这确实挺让人感到奇怪的。（来源:美国国家公共电台)

If you look at a graph of men's underwear sales over the past several decades, it's almost comically flat. Men don't run out and buy underwear because it's fashionable; they buy it when they need it, and only when they need it. 

如果观察过去几十年男士内衣销售的图表，你会发现它几乎呈现出可平稳趋势，这很滑稽。男士不会因为时尚而去购买内衣，他们只会在需要的时候购买，也仅仅在需要的时候才会去买。

Since men's underwear represents the ultimate non-luxury item, Greenspan theorized that any slight dip in sales signaled a significant drop in discretionary income [source: Kurtzleben].

由于男士内衣是非奢侈品典型代表，格林斯潘推测任何轻微的销售下滑都意味着可支配收入的显著下降。(来源:Kurtzleben)

4: Waffle House华夫饼屋

Photo by Simon Daoudi on Unsplash

在飓风过后，美国联邦应急管理局（FEMA）官员会检查该地区有多少家华夫饼屋正在运营，并利用这些信息来确定风暴损害的严重程度。

黄黑相间的华夫饼屋标志在美国的飓风季节中真的成为了暴风雨中的灯塔。