【经济学人浅读——美国的通胀热潮是否正在缓解？】

本文由海口环雅教育整理发布，欢迎联系预约试听

Is America’s inflationary fever breaking?

美国的通胀热潮是否正在缓解？Its labour market remains too hot for comfort劳动力市场仍然过热

Writing out economic figures to the third decimal place is normally an exercise in spurious precision. But after two years of uncomfortably high inflation, price statistics are studied in minute detail. The unroundedmonth-on-month increase in America’s core inflation (minus volatile food and energy costs) in June was 0.158%, even more pleasing for officialsthan the 0.2% rounded increase, which itself was the slowest pace in more than two years. However many decimal places, the question remains the same. Is America’s inflationary fever finally breaking?将经济数据写到小数点后第三位通常是一种毫无意义的精确度。但是经历了两年令人不安的高通胀后，价格统计数据受到了极其详细的研究。今年6月美国核心通胀率（不包括波动较大的食品和能源成本）的未经舍入的环比增长为0.158%，这比舍入的0.2%增幅更令官员们满意，而这本身已经是两年来最缓慢的速度。无论有多少小数位数，问题依然是一样的。美国的通胀热潮是否终于要结束了？The latest figures brought much good news. Headlines focused on the deceleration in the overall consumer-price index: just a 3% year-on-year rise in June, a sharp slow down from the 9% pace of June 2022, thanks largely to a fall in energy prices. Yet a range of measures of underlying inflation also looked appealing. Most notably, prices for core services excluding housing—a category to which Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, often points as an indicator of underlying inflationary momentum—fell slightly in June compared with May.最新的数据带来了很多好消息。头条新闻关注的是整体消费者价格指数的放缓：今年6月同比上涨仅为3%，远低于2022年6月的9%，这主要得益于能源价格的下跌。然而，一系列衡量基础通胀的指标也看起来令人满意。尤其值得注意的是，除住房外的核心服务价格（美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔经常将其作为衡量潜在通胀动力的指标）在6月与5月相比略有下降。On its own, such a benign inflation report might be expected to push the central bank to hold interest rates steady when it next meets, at the end of July. It is, however, never wise to read too much into a single month of data. The Fed’s policymakers have much else to factor into their decision,starting with the labour market. And a range of indicators highlight its remarkable resilience.仅凭这样一个温和的通胀报告，可能会预计美联储将在7月底的下次会议上维持利率不变。然而，过于依赖单个月份的数据并不明智。美联储的决策者还有很多其他因素需要考虑，首当其冲的是劳动力市场。一系列指标突显了劳动力市场的显著弹性。For every unemployed person in America, there are 1.6 jobs available, a ratio down a tad since mid-2022, but well in excess of the pre-pandemic norm. Since February 2020 the economy has added nearly 4m jobs, putting employment above its long-term trend line. Some 84% of prime-age workers are now in work or looking for work, the most since 2002 and just a percentage point off an all-time high.在美国，每个失业人口有1.6个就业机会，虽然这一比例与2022年中期相比略有下降，但远超过疫情前的正常水平。自2020年2月以来，经济增加了近400万个工作岗位，使就业超过了长期趋势线。现在，84%的适龄劳动人口正在工作或寻找工作，这是自2002年以来的最高水平，仅比历史最高水平低一个百分点。From the view of workers, such vigour is welcome. Wage growth has been fast for service-sector jobs that require less education, such as construction. This, in turn, has helped narrow income inequality. Less well-off folk benefit from a tight labour market. The unemployment rate for black Americans hit 4.7% in April, a record low.对于劳动者来说，这样的活力是受欢迎的。在不需要过多教育的服务行业工作的工资增长较快，比如建筑业。这反过来有助于缩小收入不平等。劳动力市场紧张使得较不富裕的人从中受益。4月份，黑人美国人的失业率降至4.7%，创历史新低。But will this tightness in the labour market feed through into broader price rises? Hourly earnings in June, for instance, rose at an annualised pace of 4.4%, consistent with an inflation rate well above the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. Alternative measures suggest that the upward trend may be even steeper. A tracker by the Fed’s Atlanta branch points to annualised wage growth of around 6% this year.但是，劳动力市场的紧张是否会导致更广泛的价格上涨？例如，今年6月，每小时工资以年化速度增长4.4%，这与联邦储备系统2%的通胀目标相比较高。其他指标表明上升趋势可能会更陡。美联储亚特兰大分行的跟踪指标显示，今年的年化工资增长率约为6%。As a result, despite the recent cooling in inflation, the hot employment picture all but guarantees the Fed will resume lifting rates after a brief pause last month. Markets now assign a 92% probability to a quarter-point rate rise in July; a month ago it was more or less seen as a coin flip.因此，尽管最近通胀有所降温，但就业市场的火热几乎确保美联储将在上个月短暂暂停之后恢复加息。市场现在认为7月加息25个基点的概率为92%；一个月前几乎被视为投掷硬币的结果。Less certain is what the Fed will do after that. Before the inflation data for June, Mr Powell and many of his colleagues indicatedthe central bank would provide yet another rate increase before the end of this year. This is now in doubt. If inflation recedes again in July and August, the central bank will come under extreme pressure to call time on its tightening cycle. Three decimal places will not lead it to stop. But three consecutive soft inflation reports ought to do the trick.尚不确定的是美联储之后的行动。在6月份的通胀数据之前，鲍威尔和他的许多同事表示，美联储将在今年年底之前再次提高利率。现在这成为了一个问题。如果通胀在7月和8月再次回落，美联储将面临极大压力，要结束其紧缩周期。小数点后的三位数并不能让它停下来。但连续三个通胀报告的下行趋势可能会达到这个目标。